Hit Counters

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Week 2 game by game previews

1:00pm Games

Carolina @ Atlanta

It’s going to be hard for the Panthers to run the ball with no help from the passing game. Jake Delhomme has 10 turnovers in his last two games and he doesn’t seem like he’s righted the ship in the last week. I dropped Steve Smith into the 30s in my rankings, I’m not starting him in any of my leagues, I think he’ll still provide top 10 value, just not this week. Deangelo Williams should be good here as Carolina is going to want to keep the ball out of the air. If the O-line can get some push and can sustain drives on the ground Jonathan Stewart could be a good flex play but I wouldn't count too much on it. It will be interesting to see if AJ Feely gets in the game to replace Delhomme, which could turn everyone’s fantasy potential around.

Atlanta did not look as good as their stats indicated last week, keep that in mind. I love Tony Gonzalez here, he’s an absolute nightmare for any team in the league: too big for safeties and too fast for linebackers. Carolina will focus their defense on stopping Turner who rolled like a tank through them last year at home, 177, 4TDs. Matt Ryan was held without a TD in two games last season but I really don’t expect that to be a repeat performance.

Minnesota @ Detroit

Where to start? Adrian Peterson will be unstoppable, per usual, but look for an even more monstrous game than last week. The only thing that may stop him will not be the Lions but the Vikes may get up too much and Chester Taylor may siphon away some yards and maybe a TD. Everyone seems to love Favre this week, which isn’t wrong, but I think the Vikings will really want to keep the all on the ground even if the Lions pile all 11 into the box. Favre will probably end up with a score, maybe two, but don't look for too may yards. Last week he completed 14 passes for 110 yards. Favre’s role on this team is to pick up short first downs and not turn the ball over. The longest completion last week was a 21 yarder to Percy Harvin which was more like a 5 yard screen pass that Harvin turned up field. 11 of 14 of Favre’s completions were not longer than 7 yards downfield so temper your expectation despite the excellent match up presented. All that being said, I do like Percy Harvin to break one of those 5 yard crosses through the "neural cheese" defense that the Lions possess.

Detroit will not be as inept as the match up indicates. We all know about the staunch run D of the Vikings but I believe Kevin Smith is going to remain involved in the passing game here. He received 9 targets last week and will definitely be the second receiving option to Megatron. Speaking of Megatron, he just missed a deep TD last week and should be able to deep often this week and that should lead to a score. There’s really no need to start anyone else in Lions' blue this week.

Cincinnati @ Green Bay

The strange thing about the lifeless Bengals offence from last week was that they produced some decent fantasy lines. So don’t let real life terribleness to affect your fantasy picks. Ochocinco guarantees a TD this week, I’m not going to call him a liar. He looked quite spry last week and should keep that going. For all the negatives that Cedric Benson possesses, mainly not being any good, he continues to have productive fantasy games due to number of touches. Vern Coles had a bad case of the drops last week and should remain on everyone’s bench until he gets that straightened out. Chris Henry will have himself parked in the end zone if the Bengals can get inside the 20, big if, look for Henry to score.

Aaron Rogers should be the most productive fantasy QB this week unless Grant takes too many of those touchdowns. Start Jennings, which goes without saying but also start Donald Driver who should be pretty productive here. Grant is also a must start as I see the Pack posting some squiggly numbers on the board in this one

Arizona @ Jacksonville

Arizona travels east this week which generally is never a good omen unless Jake Delhomme just stands back and turns the ball over. That games aside, the Cards do not travel to the eastern times zone for 1:00pm games very well, 0-5 on the east coast in the regular season last year. With Boldin and Breaston’s status up in the air again this week, I really don’t like Arizona here at all. Fitzgerald will be fine as always, caught a TD last week despite being triple covered all day. If Boldin and Breaston are both out again, I love Jeremy Urban in PPR leagues because the Cards can’t run. Highertower should have a productive game with combined receiving and rushing yards which could lead to a score. Beanie Wells didn't get much play last week and I don’t see that changing too much this week.

The Jags looked lost in the passing game vs. the Colts but they should rebound a bit here, I like Holt, who is very familiar with this defense, to have a good game. Garrard won’t light the world on fire but should be a good 12-14 point performer. MJD should rake in the points this week in the air and on the ground. don’t look for too much else from any other Jags with the possible exception of Mike Walker, who dropped a TD last week.

New Orleans @ Philadelphia

The Saints will try to run the ball, to no success, and then get the passing game in gear. Don’t look for a 6TD game from Brees here but he still should be a top end option. “Lucky” Pierre Thomas may be back for this one which kills the limited value Mike Bell had this week anyways, don’t start a Saints RB unless you have Reggie Bush in a PPR leagues. Its hard to make much out of the Saints receiving corps so I’ll have to go with Colston as the best option followed by Henderson, Shockey, Meachum and Moore in that order.

The Eagles will have to rely on Westbrook and the real McCoy this week to have any success. If Kevin Kolb starts at QB, which it looks like he will, the Eagles offence is going to be highly unproductive. I have a feeling recently signed Jeff Garcia will end up under center by the end of the first half which bodes well for the receiving group that will get no help from Kolb. Also, don’t look for the defense to post 40 points again this week.

New England @ New York Jets

I can’t stand either of these teams but this is definitely the game of the week. The Pats looked in vintage form when they crushed my hopes in the 4th quarter last week, damn dream stealers. If Brady can remember how to throw downfield, watch out. I don’t care how good the Jets’ defense is now, if the Pats are firing on all cylinders they won’t be stopped. I like the big three of Brady, Moss and Welker to post the usual numbers. From that backfield I’m not starting any but if I was forced to I think Taylor is most likely to score a TD but I would take Faulk in a PPR league, he should be good for 5 or 6 catches and maybe, just maybe, a TD.

Load up on the Jets’ run game this week. I have Thomas Jones as a top 6 option this week and Ponce de Leon as a viable flex. I have a feeling that the Pats are going to shut down the deep passing game and hassle Sanchez all day. Keller should work a a good safety net and should be better in PPR leagues than standard ones but is a must start either way. Limit expectations on Stuckey and Cotchery, one of them may score but I trust neither.

Oakland @ KC

The Raiders ran the ball much to the effect that Serena Williams threatened to do the umpire last at the US Open last week. Look for high doses of Run DMC and Michael “better than Reggie” Bush to be injected into the Chiefs. I like both guys here, McFadden more so. Louis Murphy had 9 targets and a touchdown last week and is definitely a high upside sleeper this week against a bad KC secondary. I’m not starting Jamarcus Russell ever but if there ever was a week to do it, this could be the one. Zach Miller is almost a must start at TE every week; if he could ever find the endzone, he’ll be deadly.

The Chiefs put up 24 points on the Ravens last week but lets put that in perceptive a bit: one TD off of a blocked punt and a score on a 6 yard drive that was set up by a 70 yard interception. They moved the ball once on an 80 yard drive which everything went their way penalty wise. Don’t trust this offence at all. That being said this isn’t the Ravens’ D and if Cassel plays and is somewhat healthy there’s defiantly some fantasy potential here. For as much as I hated Bowe last week, I like him here despite the dreaded Nnamdi match up. LJ needs to prove to people he’s not completely washed up so he could be a good option here as he put up a 92-1 line vs. Raiders at home last year.

Houston @ Tennessee

The Texans looked awfully unprepared last week but that should change with a familiar opponent this week. I like all Texans this week in spite of this seemingly bad match up. The Berg was able to pass all over them last week because of the Titans’ inability to get pressure from their 4 man front. To get pressure this week they will have to bring some linebackers allowing for one on one match ups on the outside with Andre 3000 and the returning Kevin Walter. This should benefit Slaton into having some running room and some space catching the ball out of the backfield. It's like one big chain reaction. I don’t like Owen Daniels too much here because I think Schaub can get he ball to Johnson and Walter for deeper passes.

The Titans will get back to that power running game this week with good results. As down as I was on Chris Johnson last week, this is a game of match ups, I love him this week. If you have injuries with McNabb or drafted Cutler or Delhomme as your starter, I like Collins a little here because of the emergence of Justin Gage as a quality option. Even if Nate Washington is healthy I still don’t think he’s worthy of a start until we see how he fits into this offence. Kenny Brit was probably a one week wonder, more so if Washington is back full time.
St. Louis @ Washington

Not only do I not like the Rams this season, I really hate them this week. The only guy you should consider starting here is Steven Jackson but if you have better options start them instead. Don’t any other Ram and I don’t care if it’s an all Rams league.

Now on to the show. Start Portis, he’s going to get the ball over and over this week and who’s going to stop him, Howie Long’s kid? Wrong. I would rather have Howie Long. Well maybe just Howie Long from Firestorm trying to stop this guy, he could really toss that ax. If you’ve seen my rankings you’ll note that I have Santana Moss 9th among receivers. Why is this? Twice in this game I see the following scenario playing out: after 100 Portis runs in a row, play action pass to Santana Moss open downfield for a 50 yard TD. Now let me add an epilogue to all this. I hate Santana Moss, both in fantasy and real life, I hate his guts but this match up just reeks of him, well this one and whenever he’s at Dallas. Carlson lit up the Rams last week, look for Cooley to do the same.

4:05pm Games

Seattle @ San Francisco

Start all Seahawks except Julius Jones. I think that’s pretty self explanatory. If it’s not, I like Hasselbeck, Housh, Burlson and Carlson in that order.

Vernon Davis is a quality sleeper this week, I don’t know why but I don’t trust the ‘Hawks D up the middle to stop a guy that big and fast. Gore should get back on track after looking pretty bad last week. I like Shaun Hill to step his game up a little this week and he may be good for two scores. That means I also like Isaac Bruce who looked like he was N’Sync with Hill so watch as he waves Bye, Bye, Bye to the Seahawks’ secondary. That's right, I went there.

Tampa Bay @ Buffalo

Don’t look for 41 attempted passes from Lord Byron again this week, Tampa is going to keep the ball on the ground and pound it with "Who's your" Caddy Williams and Derrick Ward. Bryant is still banged up, so I look for Mike Clayton to be the best WR option here. I wouldn’t be starting anyone outside of Williams or Ward despite of the seemingly good match up.

If my Bills can get over the terrible loss last week they should be able to be productive this week. Fred Jackson will continue to roll here and is an excellent option. Owens should receive more targets than 3 like last week. The Bucs secondary is not what it once was and can be exploited, Owens fits that role well.

Pittsburgh @ Chicago

I like Willie Parker to get back on track here against a depleted Bears D. If parker can’t get it done this week, go out and pick up Mewelde (come on, did he parents get his name from random letters on an eye test?) Moore who is going to be a bigger part of this team than Mendenhall. I believe he’s the backup who has the higher upside if something were to happen to Parker. Holmes over Ward this week. I wouldn’t touch Heath Miller.

The Bears looked awful last week and this match up is not better. I would sit Forte if I had better options. Hester may be able to get deep without Polumlu there but don’t count on it too much. In PPR leagues I would start Bennett over Hester. One guy I really do like this week is Greg Olson, the Steel Curtain is weak against tight ends and Olsen is one of the best. Do not, for the love of God, start Jay Cutler.

Cleveland @ Denver

Jamal Lewis has the chance for a quality game here but I’m not trusting anyone else. If you have Braylon Edwards you have to start him unless you’re super deep at receiver. If you're really hurt at tight end you may want to look up Robert Royal but only if you're truly desperate.

Orton looked bad last week and unless that finger is healed don’t expect much from him. Marshall and Royal will get their targets but that doesn’t always translate into catches if the ball is no where near them. Buckhalter is a better play than Moreno and could actually be a quality sleeper this week after seeing the Browns’ lack of run defense last week.

Baltimore @ San Diego

The Ravens are going to look to run the ball all day. I love Ray Rice but I wish he would score some time in his career, 0 career TDs. I also would consider "what you talkin bout" Willis McGahee this week as I see it as a good match up. Although as soon as I say that it will be a L. Ron McClain game. Derrick Mason was the team leader in targets last week and that should translate into catches this week, as usual he’s a must start in PPR leagues. Mark Clayton is always a threat to be open deep an this week is no different but how can anyone trust this guy, he’s a pure roll of the dice. I was dead on about Flacco last week and I don’t see a reason why he can’t be productive again this week.

Antonio Gates will lead the Chargers in fantasy points this week. Well, with the possible exception of Pip Riv but he’s a QB and they’re always excepted to get more, always cover yourself. There will be no running attack this week with two O-Lineman down for the count and LT now officially not playing. Sproles has better value in PPR leagues than standard format and could nab a score at some point whether it be from a 1 yard run, pass or kick return. With the pressure that Rivers will be feeling I just love Gates to be a safety valve and rack up the catches, which should lead to a score. Jackson is always a threat on the outside and after doing it against Nnamdi last week the match up is no problem; I just have a feeling that Rivers isn’t going to have the time to find him deep this week no matter how open he may or may not be.

Sunday Night

New York Giants @ Dallas

The Giants are going to give Dallas a big dose of the run diet, which is more effective than the Subway diet…. Damn you Jared and to a lesser extent Clay Henry, anyways they’re going to run, a lot…. And it’s going to work. I have Jacobs second to only AD, yes that’s “All Day” not a typo, in the rankings because I watched that Dallas game last week and they couldn’t stop the Bucs run game. I’ll take Jacobs over Williams and Ward AD, that's any day, so look for big things. Bradshaw should get into the action too and is a suitable flex option. I would never start Eli, just out of principle and I see no reason to do it this week, they’re a lot of better options out there. Steve Smith is the safest guy with the lowest upside. I think he’s becoming a must start in PPR formats though, so take a look at him there. The others receivers can’t be trusted yet but keep an eye on Mario Manningham to see if he can build on a nice game from last week.

I like Romo here to try an put the points up early to get the Giants away from their running attack, so Roy Williams should be a good play here. I’m sure Austin or Crayton will be serviceable but I can’t tell ya which one. But since I’m forced to pick I’ll say Crayton is safer but Austin has a better chance of scoring so if you wanna gamble on one of then be my guest. MB3 should be okish but don’t count on a spectacular game, his whole value this week rests on whether he scores or not, I don’t think he does. And as always Felix Jones scares the hell out of opposing defenses with his Usain Bolt like break away speed but he is a bit banged up (thigh bruise) and I would look for a safer option this week .

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