Hit Counters

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Trade Talk

Fantasy owners always panic with bad stats when that player is on their own team; they've been scorned by them before and develop a hatred for him. People are more likely to take a risk on a player they perceive to be good because they're unfamiliar with them and willing to give them a chance. Without that familiarity, most owners are willing to take a chance that someone can turn it around just because that player has has produced before. They're more willing to do this than ride it out of the underachiever that's currently on their team. Name value is so important in trades, specifically when that player becomes worse than his image is. It enables you trade some players who are highly over valued for a much better return. Coincidentally, owners seem more willing to give up on big name players if they get off to a bad start; they get panicky and label a player a bust prematurely. in this situation you can swoop in and pick up some elite talent on the cheap.

Buying and selling are two of the hardest things to do in all fantasy sports. Determining future value on a player is essentially a roll of the dice, there’s just so many variables: someone could get hurt, someone’s schedule may become easier due to defensive injuries, or someone could just lose their starting gig. The concepts of “selling high” and “buying low” are worthy strategies but you need to keep all factors in mind. From here on out I’m going to take a look at players who you should trade and trade for.

Four Big Names:

Some people to throw a low ball offer on:

Matt Forte: It can never hurt to see how little an owner is willing to part with Forte for. If you can get him 80 cents on the dollar, do it. Defenses are going to have to take a man out of the box soon to deal with the Bears burgeoning passing attack which will leave room for Forte to run.

Steve Slaton: Slaton is going to break loose soon and you’ll want to grab him before he does. The Texans passing attack is so good that defensives will eventually lose track of Slaton, putting him somewhere around where he was last year.

Ladainian Tomlinson: When Tomlinson returns from the Chargers bye week, week 5, he should be at full strength. If there are owners out there who are willing to sell LT for 50 cents on the dollar, seek them out. He may be a bust but I think you can find some people who are motivated to sell and he's definitely worth the upside. He probably won’t be a top 5 back but top 10 from week 6 on isn’t out of the question. Look at how dreadful the Chargers’ red zone offence has been with out him. he's going to be fed the ball when they get in inside the 20.


If you can get huge value for him, do it:

Larry Fitzgerald: I love Fitz, don't get me wrong, I think he’s one of the best players, at any position, in all of football. The problems rest with Anquan Boldin: he prevents Fitzgerald from being a truly elite receiver. Fitz’s best games last year came in the four weeks that Boldin was out: Weeks 5,6,16,and 17, when Boldin was out, Fitzgerald grabbed 6TDs. In the other 12 games he another 6. He's still an elite receiver but not in the top tier like the consensus though was before the season. It doesn’t look like Boldin’s hamstring is an issue anymore and that drops Fitzgerald from a top 3 receiver to a top 10 receiver. If you can swap him straight up for Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson you should look into it. A more ideal scenario would be to trade Fitz for an elite running back and a mid level receiver, something like Slaton and DeSean Jackson for Flitzgerald.

Five I’m Buying

Cedric Benson: As previously discussed on this blog, Cedric Benson is a top 10 fantasy back who gets little to no recognition. All people can remember about Benson is the bust label that has lingered with him since his Chicago days. Something crazy happened at the end of last year though; Benson seemed to get it together and he has kept it going into this season. So far he’s produced a quality 330 total yards and 2TDs through three games. He’s a guy you are going to want for the stretch run and playoffs. From weeks 11-16 he gets Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, San Diego, and Kansas City.

Steve Smith: Smith has emerged as Eli Manning’s favorite target accumulating 29 targets through three games this season. In the fantasy playoffs, weeks 15 & 16, he draws the Redskins and Panthers; two teams that probably will have little to play for come the end of the season. He has significantly more value in PPR leagues but he deserves a spot on all rosters with his consistent performance.

Steven Jackson: SJax was selected in the late first or early second round of most leagues and his stats to date have not kept up the draft slot in which he was taken. He has improved every week and there’s no way that Rams will be this terrible late in the season. Even now he hasn’t been unproductive, it just seems like it. Through three weeks Jackson has averaged 96 yards per game and no touchdowns; the TDs will eventually come. In weeks 15 and 16 he draws the Texans and Cardinals which sets up nicely for a huge playoff payday.

Nate Burleson: Burleson has been the recipient of a lot of targets so far this season, he’s currently 3rd in the NFL with 33. You should pounce on Burleson quickly before Matt Hasselbeck returns because his value will go up exponentially after that. The Seahawks have a terrible defense and it doesn’t seem like there will a lot of games where they won’t be forced to throw. TJ Houshmendzadeh is the bigger name so that pushes down Burleson’s value even more, you should be able to snake Burleson away from an owner who concerned about owning a second option on a mediocre team. Another bonus is his late season schedule, through weeks 14-16 he gets the defensively challenged Texans, Bucs, and Packers.

Brent Celek: Celek has been on a tear since the season started. He’s the number two ranked tight end and is only owned in 30% of leagues. If he’s owned in your league this is a prime week to trade for him, while he’s on bye. He has 27 targets through three weeks and has excelled with both McNabb and Kolb at the helm. Get him cheap now before it’s too late.

Five I’m Selling

Larry Johnson: While it’s debatable if you can get any real value for him, I’m sure there’s someone in your league who knows the name and name value has a lot of sway in fantasy football. Shop him around and see what you can get, if not just drop him, if you haven’t already.

Clinton Portis: I am Clin-ton is another “name” guy who just isn’t performing. He looks like he’s done; he just doesn’t hit the holes like he used to. In a gravy match up against the Lions in week 3, Portis ran for 48 yards on 12 attempts. This was against the Lions, it’s not going to get any easier than that. The best way to approach the Portis conundrum is hope he has a respectable week against the Bucs. If he does, immediately shop him around to a gullible owner. You could probably fetch people in the Lucky Pierre or DeSean Jackson range but aim higher to start, see if you can get an elite player like Vincent Jackson or even inquire to a desperate LT owner. If you want to be creative, try something like Portis for Benson and a depth filling receiver like Devin Hester.

Fred Jackson: Has been a top 5 performer for the first three weeks but his value will probably be cut by at least 40%, maybe more, with the return of Marshawn Lynch. If you can grab a mid level running like a Kevin Smith or Ronnie Brown, you’ll win this deal by a landslide. Probably a better bet would be to package him with a mid level talent like Jericho Cotchery or Donald Brown to grab an elite player.

Jamal Lewis: Lewis is almost as awful as Browns. He's getting old and has no help from the horrendous quarterback play from Anderson and Quinn. Like Larry Johnson, you should be able to get some return based on his name alone. If you can’t I would say drop him but shop him around first to try and get some value for him.

Julius Jones: Jones ranks 7th among RBs so far this season despite the fact that he is definitely one of the worst backs in football. If you dupe someone into just looking at his point total for the year you may be able to pawn him off for a top 15 back. Jones will continue to have value based solely on the fact that he’s the starter in Seattle but he won’t finish the year higher than 25th among running backs.



Week 4 TE Ranks

1 Dallas Clark vs. SEA
2 Jason Witten @DEN
3 Antonio Gates @ PIT
4 Greg Olsen vs. DET
5 Chris Cooley vs. TB
6 Owen Daniels vs. OAK
7 Dustin Keller @ NO
8 Vernon Davis vs. STL
9 Todd Heap @ NE
10 Jeremy Shockey vs. NYJ
11 Kellen Winslow @ WAS
12 John Carlson @ IND
13 Daniel Fells @ SF
14 Zach Miller @ HOU
15 Ale Crumpler @ JAX

Bye Week:

Tony Gonzalez, Brent Celek, Donte Rosario, Lenard Pope

One Up:

Dallas Clark: Rank #1- A safe pick here but I really like him to dominate this week.

One Down:

Zach Miller: Rank #14- Russell can’t complete passes to anyone, until he gets that figured out Miller’s value will be nil.

1up/1down last week:
1-1

Right on Carlson, wrong on Keller

Sleeper of the Week:

Daniel Fells: Rank #13- Looked like he has some sort of rapport with Boller and should be on the receiving end of multiple red zone targets.

Week 4 QB Ranks

1 Peyton Manning vs. SEA
2 Jay Cutler vs. DET
3 Drew Brees vs. NYJ
4 Aaron Rodgers @ MIN
5 Matt Schaub vs. OAK
6 Philip Rivers @ PIT
7 Eli Manning @ KC
8 Tom Brady vs. BAL
9 Tony Romo @ DEN
10 Carson Palmer @ CLE
11 Joe Flacco @ NE
12 Brett Favre vs. GB
13 David Garrard vs. TEN
14 Ben Roethlisberger vs. SD
15 Mark Sanchez @ NO
16 Jason Campbell vs. TB
17 Shaun Hill vs. STL
18 Kerry Collins @ JAX
19 Trent Edwards @ MIA
20 Kyle Boller @ SF

Bye Weeks:

Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Two Up:

Jay Cutler: Rank #2- It Looks like Cutler is back after a terrible week one and should treat Detroit like everyone outside of Washington does.

Carson Palmer: Rank #10- Doesn’t quite look up to form so far this year but this match up is great and he’ll want to put up some stats this week.

Two Down:

Trent Edwards: Rank #19- Stupid Edwards made me look silly last week and should not be started this week. You can’t trust him.
Shaun Hill: Rank # 17- It’s a fantastic match up but he’s too inconsistent to play, especially with better options available.

2up/2down last week:
2-2

As mentioned above, Edwards made me look stupid and Campbell pulled out some garbage time stats against the Lions but didn't play a good game.

Sleeper of the week:

Brett Favre: Rank #12- He always seems to get up for big games and this one is the biggest of the year for him. Plus, the Packers defense made Kyle Boller respectable last week.

Week 4 WR Ranks

This bye week is leaving a lot of fantasy points on your bench so you’ll probably need to take a flyer on someone. Lets find out who:

1 Reggie Wayne vs. SEA
2 Calvin Johnson @ CHI
3 Vincent Jackson @PIT
4 Randy Moss vs. BAL
5 Andre Johnson vs. OAK
6 Marques Colston vs. NYJ
7 Chad Ochocinco @CLE
8 Santonio Holmes vs. SD
9 Steve Smith @KC
10 Santana Moss vs. TB
11 Greg Jennings @MIN
12 Jerricho Cotchery @NO
13 Percy Harvin vs. GB
14 Devin Hester vs. DET
15 Hines Ward vs. SD
16 Justin Gage @ JAX
17 Wes Welker vs. BAL
18 Kevin Walter vs. OAK
19 Johnny Knox vs. DET
20 Donald Driver @MIN
21 Mike Sims-Walker vs. TEN
22 Roy Williams @ DEN
23 T.J. Houshmandzadeh @ IND
24 Mario Manningham @ KC
25 Derrick Mason @ NE
26 Brandon Marshall vs. DAL
27 Devery Henderson vs. NYJ
28 Lee Evans @ MIA
29 Braylon Edwards vs. CIN
30 Pierre Garcon vs. SEA
31 Vern Coles @ CLE
32 Bernard Berrian vs. GB
33 Nate Burlson @ IND
34 Terrell Owens @MIA
35 Devone Bess vs. BUF
36 Nate Washington @ JAX
37 Torry Holt vs. TEN
38 Eddie Royal vs. DAL
39 Earl Bennett vs. DET
40 Donnie Avery @ SF
41 Keenan Burton @ SF
42 Chris Henry @ CLE
43Ted Ginn Jr. vs. BUF
44 Mark Bradley vs NYG
45 Isaac Bruce vs. STL
46 Brandon Stokley vs. DAL
47 Mike Wallace vs. SD
48 Josh Morgan vs STL
49 Mike Furrey vs. CIN
50 Mark Clayton @ NE

Bye Weeks:

Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Roddy White, Steve Smith, DeSean Jackson, Jason Avant, Steve Breaston, Mushin Muhammad, Michael Jenkins, Kevin Curtis, Jeremy Maclin.

Three UP:

Vincent Jackson: Rank # 3- The Steelers defense is not the same without Polamalu patrolling the secondary and no one is throwing a prettier deep ball than Pip Riv right now. Jackson has shown the ability to get open deep and he will make the Steelers pay this week.

Chad Ochocinco: Rank # 7- The Browns defense can’t stop anyone right now: in the air or on the ground. Ocho looks like he’s back to vintage form and that means a big game is lurking. I think the Bengals are for real this year and Ocho breaks out in a big way in this one.

Justin Gage: Rank # 16- His value could be killed if the Titans decide to run all game. But the best game of Gage’s career came at Jacksonville last season when he had 4-147-2. He probably isn’t going to put up that line again but I like him to be reasonable productive this week.

Three Down:

Eddie Royal: Rank # 38- Royal has been horrendous this season despite appearing on paper as a perfect fit for the New England style offense that Josh McDaniels was supposed to bring with him to Denver. He seems like he is more confused than Brandon Marshall on the field, which is quite the accomplishment. I don’t like him this week or going forward. Sit him.

Ted Ginn Jr: Rank # 43- Maybe this one is out of hate but I can’t stand Ginn, he’s my least favorite player in the NFL. Being blessed with blazing speed doesn’t mean a lick when you simply can not catch. The only way I would start him this week is if your league counts drops as points.

Terrell Owens: Rank # 34- I loved Owens last week and he made me look terrible with his zero points. I think he’ll eventually get things turned around but this game should belong to Lee Evans on the receiving end of things. Evans just owns the Dolphins in his career, in ten career games he has 8TDs.

Last Week 3up/3down:
3-3

Mason and Owens really should have been switched and Marshall wasn’t as bad as I though but he really should have been; he grabbed a lucky TD when the Broncos couldn’t pound it in from close.


Sleeper of the week:

Mike Sims-Walker: Rank # 21- I love me some Sims-Walker. I’ve been talking about him all season and I really like this match up against a Titans defense that ranks 29th in the NFL against the pass. The Titans will have to load up the box so MJD doesn’t beat them so I like Sims-Walker to rack up the stats here.

Keep an eye on:

Keenan Burton: He’s the new starting receiver for the Rams, starting in place of the injured Laurent Robinson. He grabbed three passes for 37 yards when Boller came into the last week. It seems like there is something wrong with Donnie Avery so look for Burton to possibly break out like Robinson looked like he would.

Mike Wallace: "60 Minutes" looked great last week and could be taking the WR3 role away from Linus Sweed. He went for over 100 yards last week so monitor his performance to see if he can be consistent.

Injuries:

Laurent Robinson - Out for the season with an ankle and leg injury. Drop him.

Dwayne Bowe- sat out last week with a pulled hamstring and will not try to practice until Thursday. He’s the Chiefs best option at receiver so look for him to try to play. Monitor until game time.

Wes Welker- Don’t let him burn you this week, watch his status until game time. He plays in the early games this week so you’ll be able to replace him if he’s out.

Week 4 RB Ranks

Well we’ve made it through three weeks and now we have byes to deal with on top of injuries. There’s a lot of top tier running backs bye this week so who should you plug in and play?

1 Adrian Peterson vs. GB
2 Matt Forte vs. DET
3 Chris Johnson @ JAX
4 Steve Slaton vs. OAK
5 Maurice Jones-Drew vs. TEN
6 Cedric Benson @ CLE
7 Brandon Jacobs @ KC
8 Thomas Jones @ NO
9 Darren McFadden @ HOU
10 Ryan Grant @ MIN
11 Glen Coffee vs. STL
12 Pierre Thomas vs. NYJ
13 Ronnie Brown vs. BUF
14 Steven Jackson @ SF
15 Willis McGhee @ NE
16 Fred Jackson @ MIA
17 Clinton Portis vs. TB
18 Willie Parker vs. SD
19 Darren Sproles @ PIT
20 Tashard Choice @ DEN
21 Julius Jones @ IND
22 Knowshon Moreno vs. DAL
23 Ray Rice @ NE
24 Ahmad Bradshaw @ KC
25 Leon Washington @ NO
26 Donald Brown vs. SEA
27 Correll Buckhalter vs. DAL
28 Joseph Addai vs. SEA
29 LenDale White @ JAX
30 Cadillac Williams @ WAS
31 Fred Taylor vs. BAL
32 Reggie Bush vs. NYJ
33 Michael Bush @ HOU
34 Jerome Harrison vs. CIN
35 Ricky Williams vs. BUF
36 Larry Johnson vs. NYG
37 Marshawn Lynch @ MIA
38 Derrick Ward @ WASH
39 Le'Ron McClain @ NE
40 Aaron Brown @ CHI

On Bye Week:

Tim Hightower, Chris Wells, DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, LeSean McCoy, Brian Westbrook, Jonathan Stewart

Three Up:

Cedric Benson: Rank # 6- Cedric the Entertainer has been the most pleasant surprise of the fantasy season so far. He ranks in the top 10 of running backs for the season and gets a tremendous match up this week against the awful Browns. The Browns rank 30th in the league against the run, letting opponents run to a tune of 184.3 yards per game on the ground. I like the Bengals to be up in this game early which means they’ll pound the ball with Benson from then on. Except big things this week and start him with confidence.

Glen Coffee: Rank #11- The Rams rank 27th against the run giving up 148 yards per game on the ground. Coffee will be taking the espresso line to the end zone in this one with Frank Gore sidelined for two weeks. Although he didn’t run well against the Vikings last week I was encouraged with the 25 carries that he was given. Michael Robinson is always a threat to pilfer some carries but it looks like Coffee will be the feature back. The former Alabama standout is durable and should continue to be a option for Shaun Hill in the flats should the Rams figure out how to get past the 49ers O-line.

Darren McFadden : Rank #9- In what should be the best running back match up for the week look for RUN DMC to light up the sieve Texans’ defense. The Texans rank dead last against the run this year and have produced huge games for Thomas Jones, 2TDs, Chris Johnson, 3TDs, and MJD, 3TDs through the first three weeks. The problem is every time I’m high on McFadden he just kills me but I don’t think you can deny that this is the optimal match up for one of the fastest back in the league.

Three Down:

Larry Johnson: Rank # 36- Although the Giants are a middle of the pack through three weeks against the run, Larry Johnson is just brutal. Jammal Charles will likely siphon away enough carries to make Johnson obsolete.

Fred Jackson: Rank # 16- I still have him as a decent start this week but Jackson has been 5th among running backs so far this year so this is a drop off. Two things concern me this week: despite being quite terrible, the Miami defense does rank 3rd against the run ceding only 66 yards per game. Also, this week marks the return of BEAST MODE. Marshawn Lynch will be fresh off his three game suspension and looking to get involved. While I don’t think Lynch will be a feature back in his first game; I do believe he will get enough work to limit Jackson's ceiling. Upgrade Jackson if Lynch sees, “those little green dudes” at the game he may be too star struck to play.

Fred Taylor: Rank # 31- While it seems that Taylor has emerged from the convoluted Patriots back field as "the guy", this match up just reeks of a bad game. The Ravens’ new lethal offense may have the Pats behind early and it doesn’t take much for the Pats to give up on the run. If that wasn’t enough, the Ravens rank 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up a paltry 51 yards per game. I think you should go pick him up but don’t use him this week unless you’re desperate.

Last Week’s RB 3up/3down:
4-2

A bit too up on Hightower who did nothing and a tad too high on Slaton, who should have had a great game if it weren’t for poor Texans’ coaching. Outcome of putting Chris Brown in on the one yard line: Fumble and a lost game. That’s quality coaching they have there in Houston.

Sleeper of the week:

Michael Bush: Rank #33- It’s hard to tell how big of a role Bush plays from week to week but the Texans defense is so prone to big plays that I can see Bush breaking one loose this week.


Injuries:

Felix Jones - Out at least a week with a knee sprain.

Marian Barber- Missed last week with a strained quad and is still questionable this week. If he doesn’t play, go add Tashard Choice immediately as he will move up the ranks

Lawrence Maroney - He’s not really worth owning anyways but if you have him note that he has a thigh problem.

Kevin Smith - Has been listed week to week with a knee injury. He says that he’s going to play this weekend but I really don’t see that happening.

Frank Gore- Is out three weeks with an ankle injury. If I haven’t said it enough, GO ADD GLEN COFFEE!

Jamal Lewis- Has a sore hammy, which isn’t shocking, when you weight 4000 pounds something’s gotta give. He’s listed as questionable for this week and hopefully doesn’t play so we can get a first hand look at what Jerome Harrison can do against a team that’s not the Ravens.

LaDainian Tomlinson- is listed as questionable again this week but early reports say that his limp is gone, he finally made the switch from Viagra to Cialis. Even if he does play I don’t like him against the Steelers anyways; put him on the bench for another week.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Monday Night Preview

Carolina @ Dallas

I except this game to be a shootout as the Cowboys have not proven they can keep points off the board, ditto for Carolina. I think that your big guns should all be in tonight. Steve Smith and Deangelo Williams from the Panthers; Romo, Witten, Jones and Williams from the Cowboys. If you have Marian the Barbarian in your line up right now, you need to go see if Felix Jones is available, which he’s probably not. If not go get Tashard Choice and insert him in there as he should prove to be very useful splitting time with Felix Jones. He’s only owned in 8% of leagues so he should be available.

Sunday Stylings

With week 3 in the books it’s not officially time to panic yet but it’s getting close. Sunday provided some big performances so if you had Peyton Manning, MJD or Aaron Rogers you probably chalked one up in the win column. Sorry Brees owners, not every week can single handedly won by him.

Now that we’re moving on to week 4 we have the byes to deal with. So if you have Falcons, Eagles, Cards or Panthers you’re going to need some fillers from the wavier wire.

Welcome Back:

Pierre Thomas: PT Cruiser got back into the swing of thing in the second half against the Bills. He runs tough and through people, looking like the back that won many people their Fantasy Bowls at the end of last season. Lucky Pierre had 14 second half carries for 126 yards and two touchdowns. He looks to finally be fully recovered from his MCL sprain and should be solid going forward. You may want to wait one more week with the Saints playing the Jets but he’s not a terrible option.

Kevin Walter: K-Walt stepped back in without missing a beat against the Jags. He makes the potent Texans offense that more dangerous. He should prove to be a quality option as he is going to draw single coverage all game; this is what happens when you line up opposite the best receiver in football. Walter made an impact immediately grabbing 7-96-1 after missing two games. Get him in your line up as a WR3 or a flex.

Vernon Davis: The über bust Vernon Davis looks to be developing a solid rapport with Shaun Hill. Davis nabbed 7-96-2 against the Vikings and what’s even more encouraging is the 10 targets, which was double what anyone else on the team received. Davis will probably be the biggest pick up of the week as Brent Celek and Tony Gonzalez are on bye. He’s a quality bye week filler but has the talent to make an impact all season, you just need to monitor his consistency.

Willie Parker: Fast Willie got some of his lost value back this week amounting 129 total yards and a score. It was encouraging to see that he got 25 of 26 running back carries. I don’t think you can trust Parker too much yet, I mean, how often if he going to get a receiving score? It was just nice for everyone to see he can still put up some numbers and isn’t completely useless.

Fred Taylor: Taylor has emerged from the Pats’ backfield as the guy to own. While the Pats are notorious for using different backs from week to week, if Taylor can keep this up, it will be his job. I think he is someone you’ll want to go grab and store on the bench to see if his role becomes fully realized. You can never complain about a 21-105-1 day.

Injured- The Tale of Busted Shoulders and Ankles

Wesley Welker once again sat out despite looking like he was going to play. It’s hard to tell what to make of his injury as he looked fine in week one. The Patriots are not going to disclose the extent of the injury so get him in your line up and monitor his status before game time to see if he’s going to be inactive. If he’s not, you’ll want him in the line up.

Kevin Smith busted up his shoulder pretty good in the forth quarter Sunday which spells doom for a lot of my teams. It’s unclear how long smith will be sidelined for but as it stands right now the replacements are some people call me Maurice Morris or TCU rookie Aaron Brown. If you need to help right away, it looks like it will be Morris you want. He scored on a two yard run to seal the Lions win yesterday,

Frank Gore: He has become a victim of my hatred. After killing me last week, he killed all his owners this week coming out on the second series of the game. It’s the ankle that caused him to come out of the game last week and it looks like he’ll miss a few games.

Marc Bulger: That’s what he gets for that stupid c in the name. He hurt his shoulder late in the fourth quarter while trying to recover a Steven Jackson fumble. This is nothing but good news for anyone who has any stake in the Rams. Replacement Kyle Boller was able to move the offense pretty well and led STL to their highest point output of the season. This may be end of Bulger as he has deteriorated since taking over for Kurt Warner in 2004.

Laurent Robinson: This is much worse news for the Rams as Robinson was carted off the field having hurt his ankle. He was very useful for fantasy owners through the first two weeks and could have be been upgraded with the emergence of Boller. He’s listed as day to day but I would keep an eye on his progress.

Chad Pennington: Left the game yesterday with a bum shoulder and looks to miss significant time. Chad Henne will replace him as the starter and could prove to be useful when he settles into the role. I would also look for Pat White to get some more reps as well.

Week 3 Pick Ups:

Glen Coffee is the pick up of the week hands down as he is stepping into a role that’s going to guarantee him about 20-25 touches a game in a weak defensive division. For all you missing Gore for the next few weeks you need to grab him. If you don’t have Gore, Coffee is the perfect blend to get some trades brewing. Go grab Coffee now, he’ll be a quality RB2 or flex option while Gore is sidelined. He’s currently owned in 29% of leagues but that will change very soon, get him now.

Knowshawn Moreno has been a solid option the last two weeks and is starting to get the majority of carries despite the great play of Correll Buckhalter. While he is owned in 91% of league if he is available he is someone to get on the roster. He may even be a quality guy to target in a trade if you can get him on the cheap.

Brent Celek is still only owned in 31% of leagues. That’s just crazy. He has been a top 3 TE in fantasy this season and needs to be owned by players with Heath Miller, Zach Miller. Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey as starters. I can see him having Owen Daniels value for the season and he’ll finish in the top 5 if McNabb continues to be out.

Kyle Boller has a strong arm and seems like he can get the offense moving. While he isn’t a must start every week I think if you stream quarterbacks week to week, as I tend to, he can be worth a flyer if the match up is right. Also look for a significant increase in the value of Steven Jackson with Boller at the helm. Boller should provide him with some help down field, giving Jackson a little bit of room to maneuver.

Pierre Garçon has made an impact the last two week and seems to have taken firm grasp of the role opposite Reggie Wayne. In the last two weeks he has 4-112-2 and seems to have become Manning’s favorite deep option. He’s worth a flyer until Gonzalez is back and could pay some nice dividends.

The Under 50% Ownership Club-If they’re still available go get them

Correll Buckhalter (38%) continues to produce despite being on the bad end of a time share. If anything happens to Moreno he’s going to explode with value. He ranks n the top 20 of running backs for the season and is worth rostering over someone like Jamal Lewis at this point.

Johnny Knox (20%) only had one catch this week but it was for a TD. He’s been a solid play every week and should continue to develop as his rookie season progresses. Stash him on the bench and reap the rewards later.

Nate Burlson (37%) proved me wrong by producing a nice game with Wallace throwing the ball. He has more value with Hasselbeck at the helm but is still a nice option with Wallace back there.

Mike Sims-Walker (6%) is becoming a favorite on the blog for good reason. After dropping an easy TD pass in week one he has rebounded for a two week line of 12-187-1. Pretty good numbers for a guy who is barely owned. He seems to be Garrard’s favorite target and should continue to develop.

Mark Sanchez (45%) or the Sanchize or Franchez, either one really works, has delivered a quality fantasy line through three weeks despite two tough opponents. He posted three TDs this week and has a string of weak match ups coming up over the next five weeks, @NO, @ Mia, Buf, @ Oak, and Mia. If you’re looking for a change at QB or just some more depth get your hands on Sanchez.

Some Final thoughts

The Browns have only scored one offensive touchdown in their last 9 games. You’d be nuts to start anyone from this team right now. I’ve dropped Jamal Lewis in leagues for higher upside players. This offense is anemic and will make your team suffer. I would hold Braylon for a little longer as he has the best chance to get things righted.

Percy Havrin has scored in three games to open his career and has made people look great for taking late round flyers on him. I still don’t think he’ll be an elite receiver this season though. He is currently touchdown dependant and I have a feeling he’s not scoring a touchdown every week. I think you can look at DeSean Jackson’s line from last year for a decent comparison, Jackson finished 2008 with 62-912-2 with 440 return yards for a TD and 96 rushing yards and a TD. Harvin will probably end up with 6-8 total touchdowns but less yards and receptions. If someone is willing to over pay for him, you should take that deal.

Bryant Johnson looked great in the Lions’ first win in years. It posted a 4-73-1 line with 11 targets. If he can keep the job opposite Calvin Johnson he could be in line for a couple big games. Keep an eye on him.

Daniel Fells caught two TD passes from Kyle Boller and finished the day with 5 targets, 3 coming in the red zone. He’s worth noting just to see if him and Boller have some kind of rapport, more so if Robinson misses time.

An unexpected situation is developing in Green Bay. In the last two weeks Greg Jennings has 2 catches for 103 yards with 0 TDs while Donald Driver has 10-194-2. The telling sign is the number of targets for each, Driver is making the most of his, while Jennings is not. Driver has double the amount the last two weeks with 16 to 8 over Jennings. This may be nothing but I think it is worth taking notice of right now. If Driver has a bad game this week I think you should put a lowball offer into his owner to try and grab him.

Cedric Benson is someone you need to trade for now. It’s his third straight quality week and his match ups from weeks 11-16 are fantastic. @Oak, Cle, Det, @Min, @SD, KC. Only the Vikings should give him any troubles there. It’s never too early to be looking ahead and this is someone that can really help your team down the stretch. I think the fact that he’s Cedric Benson means you can get him for much less than he’s worth, making him a great trade option.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Sunday Preview

1:00pm Games

CLE @ BAL

The Browns have been dreadful on the offensive side of the ball and the problems all start at quarterback; Brady Quinn is almost as terrible as his alma mater. Quinn’s inability to throw the ball vertically hurts not only his own value but that of Braylon Edwards and other Browns who nobody owns. Jamal Lewis has a hard enough time fitting through doors let alone the holes that his O-line won’t be able to open. Lewis is a bit banged up so we could finally see preseason Wünderkid James Davis get some touches, now that he appears to be fully healthy. Although this isn’t the Ravens’ defense of yesteryear, it is most certainly going to outclass the pitiful Browns.

There should be plenty of fantasy goodness to be had for the Ravens this weekend. My favorite preseason sleeper, Ray Rice, should show up in this one with about 100 total yards and a possible score. Rice’s and my nemesis Willis McGahee has walloped his way into weekly must start territory. McGahee has 4TDs through 2 weeks and gets the goal line carries on team who will all probably have skin cancer after all the Red Zone exposure this week. Joe Flacco, for the third week in a row, should produce a stellar fantasy line. This match up is about as soft as it gets (* As Soft As It Gets would be a great title for a gay action moive starring Huge Jackman. He plays a gay ice cream truck driver who goes on a killing spree to exact revenge on the thugs who took the life of his grizzly, but sensitive older lover, played by Al Pacino, who appears in a vain attempt to seem like a credible actor. Best scene: Jackman goes incognito into the gang‘s hideout and serves them free ice cream with cyanide for toppings, partial revenge achieved. The sad part is that you could dupe people into actually going to see this movie. All you would need is a trailer with some quiet music and some chimes at the beginning showing their happy lives together. Show the death and then just blast some rock music and show some explosions and/or people getting killed by explosions. Throw Jackman in a tight ice cream serving uniform and you have women lined up to see it. All it would need is pseudo clever tagline like: Revenge is a dish served soft, ON MERCY!!!. There ya go, $50 million opening weekend*) and ….ah …. Oh yes Joe Flacco. The hardest part of Flacco’s day is going to be figuring out which open receiver to throw to, I mean he doesn’t want to seem like he plays favorites. I except the running game to be in full force here and while any member of the receiving corps, Mason, Heap, Washington, or Clayton could turn in a nice game, I just don’t trust any of them individually so be weary.

WAS @ DET

The Redskins offense is much like my deck, they have no finish. Nine points against the horrendous Rams’ defense is embarrassing. The more and more I look at this game it just seems like a perfect storm brewing. I think the Lions win this game, albeit by a narrow margin, in a lowish scoring affair. I love the match up but why would you start Jason Campbell? He’s one of the few players in football to have the amazing gift of making everyone around him worse. If the ‘Skins want to be successful they need to keep the ball on the ground and give Portis upwards of 30 carries. Portis should be alright here. I’ve been scorned by Santana Moss too many times in the past to trust him but I do like The Cooler to do his usual 6-8 catches for 60-90 yards and maybe a score.

Kevin Smith will shoulder the load (Great name for a Porn) this week and should produce double digit fantasy points with contributions through land and air. Megatron is a must start as always and should find the end zone again this week. There’s really no need to own, let alone start, any other Lion, out side of maybe Jason Hanson.

JAX @ HOU

MJD is the only Jag I have any faith in from week to week at this point. I expect the Texans to score at will in this one so Garrard and company will be playing catch up. I’m down on Garrard this week but he could be a garbage time legend, like last week: 3TDs. I would just rather start someone who I can count on to throw a score or two without need his team to be down by 25 first. If you want a safe six points, Torry Holt is the man for the job but if you want to roll the dice a little I think that Mike Sims-Walker has the higher upside.

Get ready for a scoreboard overload for the home side. Who can’t you like on the Texans this week? The Jags have zero pass rush and Schaub excels under limited pressure. The receiving crops are all starts. As usual, Andre 3000 and Daniels are going to be involved but if the return of K-Walt happens this week I think you should get him in there too. What do you do with Steve Slaton? Get him in your line up. He’s been terrible so far this year but I like him to get a lot of touches. In weeks one and two Slaton played against the best two run defenses going, at least stat wise. This is a great match up for Slaton, so look for him to treat the Jags like a chick who’s too drunk: he’s going to take advantage.

SF @ MIN

I just don’t like this game at all for the 49ers. A good offensive game for them is predicated on Frank Gore controlling the pace. That’s not going to happen unless Gore gets a sledgehammer and tears down the Williams Wall. Shaun Hill is a game manager at best and is going to be forced to win this one through the air, which isn’t going to happen.

Being a good fantasy analyst is all about giving consistent, good advice. So I’m stepping of on a ledge here when I tell you to start Adrian Peterson. I hear he’s pretty good. Other than that I’m going to go with Percy Harvin as the next best option with Favre sticking to short pass/game managing duties. Harvin is always a threat to break one of those short ones loose if he can find a bit of open space. It’s hard to get overly excited for anyone on the Vikings, I really think they try to control the clock with AD, and I think it works.

ATL @ NE

Of all the games this weekend this one is easily the toughest to predict. With that said, I’m going to predict a shootout and great fantasy value all around. Start the Falcon’s Fearsome Foursome of Turner, Ryan, White and Gonzalez.

Welker burned a lot of owners last week with his surprising inactive status. Edelman filled in valiantly but he’s no Welker, he’s just some other white guy . I love Moss this week as he has something to prove after experiencing THE DRE last week. Brady isn’t Brady yet but each week he will get closer to his old self. Per usual, you want no part of the run game.

KC @ PHI
The Chiefs could barely score on the Raiders last week, the Raiders! Things don’t look good for them in this on. I’d start Bowe and no one else.

Get rid of those cans because the Eagles are eating straight from the Kolb again. I like Brent The Tent to once again be highly productive. If Westbrook is out you have to love LeSean McCoy to make an impact on the ground and through the air. If DeSean Jackson is limited by his hamstring look for Jason Avant to get the targets avant the others.

NYG @ TB

The Giants are going to have a field day this week, complete with free orange drink and all. I love Eli Manning, Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham to deliver against the shaky man coverage Tampa is throwing out there. Jacobs has been a disappointment so far but you have to start him with this good of a match up. If you’re hurt up at the flex, Bradshaw should deliver 7+ points.

The Bucs are pretty wretched. They need to take a page out of the Cowboys’ game plan from last week and try to run the ball. Dallas was able to run for 200+ yards last week and there’s no Justin Tuck to stop Ward and Caddy this week. Which one do you start? Well, I have a feeling that Ward gets more touches and yards and Williams is likelier to score, so pick your poison. The only receiver you want is TE Kellen Winslow; the Giants have ceded TE scores in the first two games, Winslow has scored in the first two game. If your big on trends, I think this one will appeal to you.

GB @ STL

The Pack should get back to their winning ways aginst the number one contender for the first overall pick, the Rams. After posting a goose egg for owners last week, Greg Jennings looks to get Sister Act 2 this week; back in the habit. Keeping on the Whoopi trend, Rogers is going to be like Stella after a troublesome game vs. the Bengals. It will be “Bogus” if Driver doesn’t get involved and produce as the Rams have will not be able to pressure Rogers the way Odom did last week, 5 sacks!! Ryan Grant will be no “Ghost” this week and should enjoy “the View” from the end zone as he terrorizes the defense like the wonderful Julius Jones did in week one. The only way the Packers screw this one up is by replacing Mike McCarthy with “Eddie” at half time and that still may not be enough for the Rams, I mean it worked for the Knickerbockers.

Must like an ugly girl with a hot ass or a fat one with a pretty face there are some borderline attractive parts of the Rams this week. They may go 0-16 this year but two players, Steven Jackson and Laurent Robinson can help you. The Packers’ D looked very Swiss like last week and will give up points, I like Jackson to succeed on sheer touches alone and Robinson to with his playmaking ability.

TEN @ NYJ

The Titans are going to want to run the ball but the Jets just aren’t going to allow that. Frankly I don’t see much value in this game from either side, except for the Titans’ Defense. Look for this one to be a hard hitting, low scoring affair,

The NY Jets, one of my least favorite squadrons, don’t offer much here either, It won’t be unusual when Leon outscores Tom Jones but both will be a letdown against a very good Titan run defense. The two guys I like the best in this game are Cotchery and Natural Born Keller. The Texans exposed the Titans lack of pass rush last week so the Sanchise should have enough time to find some people downfield.

4:05 Games

NO @ BUF

Ralph Wilson stadium doubles as the OK Corral when the shootout goes down this week. Brees looks unstoppable, as does Colston. With Lance Moore still rehabbing his knee, Devry Henderson should meet my favorite Irishman, Targets O’Plenty. Even Robert Meachum should get involved, I think all are good plays. Mike Bell and “Lucky” Pierre Thomas both have MCL sprains and may not play. This leaves the door open for Reggie Bush to spilt touches with someone else. Lynell Hamilton says, “I’m someone else”. Hamilton has been taking first teams snaps in practice this week and I highly recommend you play him of word of Bell and Thomas both being inactive trickles out Sunday afternoon.

My main man T Ed should continue his hot streak this week. TO and Lee Evans will contribute as well. The awesomeness that is Fred Jackson will keep posting those big numbers. All four are great starts this week as you’ll want to have people in this game.

CHI @ SEA

Matt Forte needs to have a good game here. He just has to. It’s my contention that he will along with the rest of the Bears. Cutler should be able to find Hester, Olsen, Knox and Bennett all day but it’s Forte who I like to be the standout. After watching Frank Gore make the ‘Hawks defense look like pylons last week, I don’t think some W. D. Forte is going to help.

I’m not starting any Seahawk this week if Hassel beck isn’t playing, which is looking more and more likely. My team does not need to overdose on Seneca Wallace. Can’t win with him. Wallace is the Shang Tsung of fantasy value, he just sucks the soul out of everyone in sight. That’s bad news for Housh and Sons, Burl and Carl.

PIT @ CIN

Surprisingly, it’s been very hard to score on the Bengals through the air this year, unless you’re Brandon Stokley that is. Two passing scores given up in two weeks is pretty good. I think Antwan Odom turns the tables on Big Ben and harasses him all day, hopefully Odom can settle before court. This is going to hurt the value of Ward and Holmes but not to the point where you don’t start them, you just need to limit your expectations. I’m not starting any Steelers’ running back until they show they’re able to effectively run the ball.

Palmer and Ochocinco looked great last week and with no Polamalu patrolling the secondary I actually like them both in this seemingly tough match up. Once again, Chris Henry is a threat to get a red zone score and may be worth a high upside flyer. Despite the bad match up, Cedric Benson has made himself very useful two weeks in a row and could find pay dirt in this one. Remember: he’s their only option at running back and he’s going to get 25 touches, that’s value in an of itself.

DEN @ OAK

I really don’t know what to make of the Bronco’s passing game. I’m sitting “I AM” Marshall and Eddie Royal until they do something positive at all. I’m calling Orton a sit as well. One guy I do like for a breakout game is Knowshawn Moreno. They fed him the ball last week and will be looking to do the same again here, which could lead to some big numbers. Correll Buckhalter is a sneaky flex play but needs to score to have value.

Anyone you trust from this group of winners? Run DMC is your only option here and he’s not even that great of one. You’d be crazier than the inhabitants of the Black Hole to start any other Raider.

MIA @ SD

The only two things you can count on from the Dolphins are the WILDCAT and Ted Ginn dropping TDs. Since Pennington can now only throw a max distance of 7 yards, in length that is, he can still reach almost 60 yards vertically, the Fins have to turn to Ronnie Brown to carry the load. I like Brown a lot this week as the Ravens were able to run all over the Chargers last week. Don’t except too much else from the Miami as east coast teams generally struggle coming out west.

The Colts scored seemingly whenever they wanted last week and I see much of the same this week for the San Diego Super Chargers. Rivers will be finding a lot of Vincent Jackson downfield, he is quickly becoming an elite receiver. As usual, Gates will get his touches and be productive. For the second straight week it looks like there’s no LT which means a lot of Sproles, get him in your line up.

8:15 game

IND @ ARZ

Start Manning, Clark and Wayne with confidence, after them it gets a bit dicey. Last week it was the Frenchman, Pierre Garcon, nabbing a TD but he only had one catch. You need to be tentative if you’re think about starting Garcon, Collie or Baskett. Addai and Brown have a nice match up here but it’s still tough to get a handle on their situations. It seems to me, after Monday night, that Brown is going to be more involved through the air and that is where I see this game going. Brown over Addai this week.

This is a statement game for the Cards and I think they deliver. I like Hightower and Wells against the Sanderless Colts defense. You need to be starting the usuals, Warner, Bolding and Fitz, as you should every week. Thing are eventually going to get out of control in this one and the points will start piling up.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Week 3 TE Ranks

1 Tony Gonzalez @NE
2 Dallas Clark @Ari
3 Antonio Gates Mia
4 Jason Witten Car
5 Chris Cooley @Det
6 Owen Daniels Jac
7 Dustin Keller Ten
8 Brent Celek KC
9 Kellen Winslow NYG
10 Jeremy Shockey @Buf
11 Greg Olsen @Sea
12 Todd Heap Cle
13 John Carlson Chi
14 Zach Miller Den
15 Vernon Davis @Min

One Up:
1. Rank: #7. Dustin Keller stand to benefit from the lack of pressure and loads of run defense from the Titans. Sanchez is going to want to keep his throws manageable and quick and that reeks of Keller. He’s a freak athlete and presents a tough match up to all the Titans’ linebackers.

One Down:

1. Rank: #13. Again, this is just me being down on the Seahawks without Hasselbeck. Carlson, you would think, would benefit with Wallace with his sure hands and short routes but Wallace is just too bad to help him out.

Week 3 QB Ranks

1 Drew Brees @Buf
2 Kurt Warner Ind
3 Peyton Manning @Ari
4 Aaron Rodgers @StL
5 Matt Schaub Jac
6 Eli Manning @TB
7 Philip Rivers Mia
8 Tom Brady Atl
9 Matt Ryan @NE
10 Trent Edwards NO
11 Joe Flacco Cle
12 Tony Romo Car
13 Jay Cutler @Sea
14 Ben Roethlisberger @Cin
15 Mark Sanchez Ten
16 Carson Palmer Pit
17 Brett Favre SF
18 Jason Campbell @Det
19 Kevin Kolb KC
20 Byron Leftwich NYG

2 Up:

1. Rank: #6. Eli Manning looked tremendously comfortable passing to Steve Smith and Mario Manningham on Sunday night and should keep it rolling against the Bucs. Tampa has been torched by Romo and Edwards in back to back weeks and Eli presents a bigger problem for them. What ever happened tot he Tampa 2?

2. Rank: #10. The Saints defense isn’t scared to give up points and that should benefit the Bills and Trent Edwards. T Ed has been surprisingly effective for fantasy owners this season following up his 2TD performance against the Pats with 3 last week against Tampa. Brees will have the points on the board so the Bills are going to be passing.

2 Down:

1. Rank: #18. People will be high on Campbell this week based on his match but there’s one thing to remember, he’s not any good. The Redskins look just as bad as the Lions and Campbell has not shown he can throw the ball downfield effectively. Look for a lot of Portis and Betts mixed in with short dumps to Chris Cooley.

2. Rank: #NR. David Garrard is someone I have liked to be a consistent performer but I don’t like him at all this week vs. the Texans. He could always surprise but he and the Jags are playing bad football right now and this is eventually going to lead to a lot of turnovers, I think it's this week.

Week 3 WR Ranks

1 Andre Johnson Jac
2 Larry Fitzgerald Ind
3 Marques Colston @Buf
4 Calvin Johnson Was
5 Reggie Wayne @Ari
6 Randy Moss Atl
7 Terrell Owens NO
8 Steve Smith @Dal
9 Vincent Jackson Mia
10 Roddy White @NE
11 Greg Jennings @StL
12 Steve Smith @TB
13 Anquan Boldin Ind
14 Santonio Holmes @Cin
15 Chad Ochocinco Pit
16 Dwayne Bowe @Phi
17 Jerricho Cotchery Ten
18 Donald Driver @StL
19 Hines Ward @Cin
20 Percy Harvin SF
21 Santana Moss @Det
22 Roy Williams Car
23 Lee Evans NO
24 Mario Manningham @TB
25 Johnny Knox @ Sea
26 DeSean Jackson KC
27 T.J. Houshmandzadeh SEA
28 Devery Henderson @Buf
29 Braylon Edwards @Bal
30 Laurent Robinson GB
31 Ted Ginn Jr. @SD
32 Derrick Mason Cle
33 Eddie Royal @Oak
34 Brandon Marshall @Oak
35 Bernard Berrian SF
36 Devin Hester @Sea
37 Torry Holt @ Hou
38 Mike Sims-Walker @Hou
39 Chansi Stuckey Ten
40 Justin Gage @NYJ

Three Moving Up:

1. Rank: # 7. Terrell Owens looked like he was getting more comfortable with Trent Edwards last week and a match up against the Saints should turn into a shootout.

2. Rank: #12. The other Steve Smith has evolved into Eli Manning’s most consistent threat in the passing game and a date with the Bucs will prove to be a good one for him. Tampa has been lit up on the ground and the air though two games this season, don’t look for that trend to end this week.

3.Rank: #17. Tennessee has been dominant against the run so far and pitiful against air attacks. I like Sanchez to hook up with Cotchery this week in what could possibly be his best game of the season.

Three Moving Down:


1. Rank: # 34. Brandon Marshall will eventually breakout but now is not the time. He doesn’t seem to know the plays and looks lost out there. Having Nnamdi on him isn’t helping either.

2.Rank: # 27. TJ Housh will find it hard to gain some yards this week if Seneca Wallace is at the controls. Not really Housh’s fault.

3. Rank: # 32. Despite the fact that he has a good match up and a team high in targets, Derrick Mason hasn’t done anything this year. I see the Ravens keeping the ball on the ground here and taking their shots deep with Mark Clayton. He’s still a PPR start this week but that’s about it.


Others:
Nate Burlson
Devone Bess
Mark Clayton
Vern Coles
Brandon Stokley
Bobby Wade
Nate Washington
Jason Avant

Injuries:

Kevin Walter Jac, Probable- Look for Walter to come back into a good match up but keep an eye on his Sunday status
Wes Welker Atl, questionable- thought he was going to play last week but fooled us all and was inactive. Monitor him up until game time, if he plays you’ll want him in there.

Week 3 RB Ranks

1 Adrian Peterson SF
2 Maurice Jones-Drew @Hou
3 Matt Forte @Sea
4 DeAngelo Williams @Dal
5 Michael Turner @NE
6 Steve Slaton Jac
7 Fred Jackson NO
8 Ryan Grant @StL
9 Brandon Jacobs @TB
10 Willis McGahee Cle
11 Felix Jones Car
12 Ronnie Brown @SD
13 Clinton Portis @Det
14 Kevin Smith Was
15 Tim Hightower Ind
16 Frank Gore @Min
17 Ray Rice Cle
18 Steven Jackson GB
19 Darren Sproles Mia
20 LeSean McCoy KC
21 Leon Washington Ten
22 Knowshon Moreno @Oak
23 Darren McFadden Den
24 Chris Johnson @NYJ
25 Cedric Benson Pit
26 Reggie Bush @Buf
27 Pierre Thomas @Buf
28 Cadillac Williams NYG
29 Ahmad Bradshaw @TB
30 Thomas Jones Ten
31 Larry Johnson @Phi
32 Willie Parker @Cin
33 Correll Buckhalter @Oak
34 Joseph Addai @Ari
35 Donald Brown @Ari
36 Larry Johnson @Phi
37 Julius Jones Chi
38 Derrick Ward NYG
39 Donald Brown @Ari
40 Chris Wells Ind

Three Moving Up:

1. Rank: # 6. I think this is finally the week that Steve Slaton gets in on the scoring parade in Houston. He just killed Jacksonville at home in week 13 last season: 21-130 for 2 TDs plus 52 yards receiving. If he doesn’t get it done this week you may have to start looking at other options.

2. Rank: #10. Willis McGahee has shown he’s going to be the red zone back on top of splitting carries. He has 4TDs in the first two week and this is his best match up yet against the abominable Browns.

3. Rank: # 15. With Bob Sanders on the mend again this week I like Tim Hightower to get on the go at home vs. the Colts. Hightower is two for two for productive games this season and is a threat to score on the ground and through the air.

Three Plummeting:
1. Rank: # 24. He was the best fantasy player last week but I’ll take safer options this week as Chris Johnson goes up against the Jets. The Jets have been playing lockdown defense through two games and they won’t make the same mistakes that the Texans did last week

2. Rank: # 30. From the same game I don’t see Thomas Jones doing too much here. Despite the fact that the Titans have been scored on aplenty, they have controlled the line of scrimmage and dominated on run defense. To their credit so far this year has been shutting down Willie Parker and Steve Slaton.

3. Rank: # 18. Steven Jackson is healthy and still explosive but opposing defenses can primarily key on shutting him down with no consequence of the Rams’ passing game killing them. Once the Rams can get a more balanced offence together Jackson will regain his top 10 value but that isn’t in the cards this week. He’s still a start but temper your expectations; best case scenario will be that he gets something like 30 touches and is able to break one loose.

Others:
Tashard Choice Car
Correll Buckhalter @Oak
Jamal Lewis @Bal
Fred Taylor Atl
Michael Bush Den
Jonathan Stewart @Dal
LenDale White @NYJ
Ricky Williams @SD
Le'Ron McClain Cle

Injury Risks: Rankings are based on these players not playing

Brian Westbrook KC Questionable- the seemingly always questionable Westbrook will be a top 25 back if he is in and will probably kill the value of McCoy.

Marian Barber Car Doubtful - Looks more and more like he won’t be in, Felix Jones gets the bump up the ranks

LaDainian Tomlinson Mia Questionable- Probably won’t see too many reps even if he does play

Monday, September 21, 2009

Monday Night Preview

Colts @ Dolphins

We all know the passing attack of the Colts is for real. Reggie Wayne is in line for a big game here but the uncertainty comes on the other side of the field. My new favorite Frenchman Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Hank Baskett will battle for time at the WR2 spot. Dallas Clark sets up nice here to score a TD and haul in some grabs. On the ground I would shy away from Brown or Addai, if I had to pick, I see Addai scoring before Brown.

On the Dolphins side of the ball I like Ronnie Brown quite a bit to tear up an overrated Colts run defense. Ricky Williams looked last week like he’ll be a player in this offense regardless of how high he is. I wouldn’t touch too much of the passing game in this one. No on Pennington. No on Ginn. No on Fasano. But as usual I do like Devone Bess in PPR formats.

Mailbag

I was thinking about doing a mailbag article this week, so if anyone has questions on who to start/sit, add/drop, or trade drop me a line and I’ll answer them in an article.

Sunday Stylings

I hate Frank Gore

wait... let me put that in bold I hate Frank Gore


One of the keys to winning in fantasy football is having those impact players on your team, or at least not play against you. I can not overstate how much I hate Frank Gore. I played against Frank Gore in basically every league I was in and it turns out that it dealt me a serious blow in the winning department. It’s probably Frank Gore’s Karmic hitmen getting back at me for passing on him in so many drafts. It could also be that the Seahawks’ front seven has more holes in it than Sonny Corleone at his most recent toll booth visit. They had no answer for Gore at all, they just stood there, standing trout faced in amazement that that Gore had the audacity to run past them that fast. Gore finished the day with 16 carries for 207 yards and 2 TDs. On top of that he added 5 catches for 39 yards to lead the 49ers in receiving. This was one of those days where playing against Gore could ruin your day. That is unless…..

You also played against someone who had Chris Johnson. I loved Chris Johnson this week but there are very few people around that could have predicted this bombshell. 16 caries for 197 yards and 2TDs. He then went on to lead the Titans in receiving with 9 catches for 87 yards and a TD. It was silliness on each of these runs; his third touchdown was a 90 yard draw, in which, he was seemingly stopped about five yards into it. In one league Johnson and Gore, with the help of Matt Schaub single-handedly beat one of my teams. I Hate Frank Gore. Well enough with that, lets get on to Sunday’s happenings:

The Week 2 Allstar Team

QB: Matt Schaub: He burned a lot of people last week against the best defense of all time, the Jets, and seemed to be walking into the fryer again this week heading to Nashville. I said give a pass to the Texans’ offence and even I didn’t think I’d be this right. 4TDs for Schaub, two to Andre 3000, and 357 yards proved he is worthy, at least for one week, of all the preseason hype around him. Look for him to keep this show going next week when the Texans host Jacksonville.

RB: Chris Johnson : Don’t keep this performance in your head too long, he heads to the Jets next week, who I’m pretty sure are some sort of hybrid between the ‘85 Bears and steroids.

RB: Frank Gore: Franklin came alive this week. Also, I hate him.

WR: Mario Manningham: Before you read any more, go see if Manningham is available in your league. It’s ok, I’ll wait……………… alright, I hope you’ve put in a waiver claim on him. He looked great against the Cowboys piling up a stellar 10-150-1 game. That’s a score now in the first two games to start his career. He looked great in preseason and he’s looked great through two weeks. Get him on your team now and reap the rewards later. This guy has game changing ability.

WR: Andre Johnson: I guess we can now call it the “Darrell Revis Effect” or THE DRE. Revis is going to take out a personal ad for the rest of the season reading: if you have an all-world receiver who’s coming to town, call THE DRE and he‘ll be shut down. Revis held Randy Moss to 4 catches for 24 yards this week, last week he held Johnson to 4-35. Turns out when Andre 3000 doesn’t suffer from the dreaded DRE he is going to get you. Against what is supposed to be a legit Titans secondary, Johnson went crazy and caught 10 balls for 149 and 2TDs. He had a beautiful TD grab that he tipped up to himself at the back of the end zone. Just pure beauty. Look for Johnson to keep this going unless Revis gets traded to the Texans’ opponents every week.

WR: Vincent Jackson: There were others to pick from here but it was crazy to see Jackson get so consistently open down field. The Ravens defense is clearly missing Bart Scott and Rex Ryan. Jackson hauled in 6-141-1 and just seemed to grab everything thrown his way, making Rivers look good in the process. That’s two good weeks in a row for Jackson, I think you can count on him to be a top 15 option for the rest of the season.

TE: Tony Gonzalez: Turns out that Tony G was the perfect fit for Matt Ryan and the Falcons. A 7-71-1 was a great line for a week that was not kind to tight ends. I love Gonzalez’s chances of challenging Witten as the top tight end this year.


5 People I was dead wrong on

Steve Smith: Looks like the demise of Jake Delhomme may have been a tad premature, I mean who believed that non-sense anyways? Definitely not me, that’s for sure. Delhomme rebounded a bit this week throwing for 300+ yards and turning the ball over only once., WOW!!! What was the main contributor to this epic turn around? It turns out It was targeting Steve Smith 15 times and letting him make plays on the ball. I still think there’s going to be ups and downs depending of the quality of game that Delhomme has but it looks like Smith is back as a number one threat.

Santana Moss: Stupid Santana Moss. This is what I get for having faith in that midget, If you started him over someone like, oh I don’t know, Steve Smith, that’s my bad. For some reason the ‘Skins were not able to ‘finish the job’ this week when it came to scoring. They made four red zone trips and came away with nine points. Nine. That’s terrible. If this is how Washington’s offence is operating there’s going to be a lot of losses in the future in the nation’s Capital.

Thomas Jones: It’s not unusual to have thought this one was had potential written all over it. He finished with 14-54 which isn’t great but this was more of a usage issue than an effectiveness issue. He seems to be firmly entrenched in a full time share with Leon Washington but he will continue to get the majority of goal line touches so don’t lose faith yet.

Kellen Winslow: I gave him no credit coming into the year and no credit the last few weeks but it really looks like he and Lord Byron have developed a decent connection and with Antonio Bryant out, he’s going to see a lot of passes come his way. After watching Tampa fall to my Bills this week I think I can predict that they’re not going to be good this year. If they’re not good that means they’ll be playing from behind a lot, which means a lot of passing: all good news for Winslow. If he’s still out there in your league go grab him, he may not play on your team but he could be used as good trade bait in a few weeks.

Aaron Rogers: I had him as my number one QB this week and he was given every opportunity to come through on it. I was going to throw Greg Jennings onto this list but I don’t think that I’m the only one who didn’t see his zero catches coming. Why didn’t Rogers do better than his middle of the pack 261-1 day? One man: Antwan Odom. Odom reeked havoc on Rogers all day collecting 5 sacks and seemed to be playing on the Packers side of the line of scrimmage all day. You may need to readjust your projections for Rogers and the Packers for that matter; both are going to struggle until they get the offensive line all on the same page.

5 People I got dead on

Chad Ochocinco: He said he would score, I believed him, he made us both look good. The Artist formally known as Chad Johnson made the most of his 4 catches, turning it into 91 yards and a TD. He looked sharp and focused even when it was not involved in the play. I was high on EightFive coming into the year and he has only lived up to my praise so far.

Donald Driver: For as much as I got Moss wrong, I think I got Driver right. He was the focal point of the Pack’s aerial assault , collecting 99 yards on 6 catches and a score. I have my doubts that Jennings stays out of the action on a full time basis. If Green Bay has a weaker defensive opponent, there’s no reason not to start Driver.


Brent Celek: I thought “The Tent” would pitch himself up about 8 yards down field to be Kolb’s safety valve and that’s exactly what he was. He grabbed 8 passes for 104 yards in a week where many were down on him. Celek could very well be a top 10 option at tight end by the end of the year but I would really play the match ups with him for right now. That being said, he seems like a plus player in PPR leagues.

Fred Jackson: He dominated on the ground again this week and it’s looking more and more like he’ll kill Marshawn Lynch’s value when he comes back.

Denver’s Defense: Denver’s checklist: keet the Browns off the field, check. Browns can’t move the ball when they have it so keep Josh Cribbs from returning one, check. The Broncos have a pretty soft schedule and apparently a pretty good defense, who knew? This week they limited the Browns to 6 points, had 4 sacks (all from Elvis Dumervil), 2 fumble recoveries and a pick. I’d say that’s a pretty decent week.

Injuries and Options:

Brian Westbrook left the game with an ankle sprain, the same ankle he had repaired this summer. If LeSean “The Real” McCoy is available in your league, go get him now. He’s a Westbrook clone who is at a point of his career where he’s a bit more durable. He should rack up the points if Westbrook isn’t in the lineup.

Jerious Norwood go drilled on his one carry and left the game with a sore head. Probably from thinking about how he didn’t see that guy who was trying to take his head off. Jason Snelling came as his replacement and took 6 carries and even grabbed a short TD pass. There’s really no need to grab Snelling unless you really feel like you need Turner’s handcuff, which is Norwood as soon as he’s back.

Matt Hasselbeck tried to be a good man for a lot of his owners by trying to tough out a TD run which cost some people, like me, a victory this week. Instead of sliding feet first, Rogaine’s least successful customer decided it would be prudent to dive head first and leave your bad back exposed to the hardest hitting linebacker in football. Result? Bruised ribs. No info yet on how long he’s out for but you want no part of Seneca Wallace if he’s in the line up.

Week 2 Pick Ups

Laurent Robinson STL- Last week it was 5-87, this week it was 6-54 plus a TD. It seems like Robinson, not Donnie “Fumbs” Avery is the number one receiver on this team. He plays in a weak division and the Rams have a weakish schedule. He’s definitely a good pick up to anyone who is in need of receiver depth.

Byron Leftwich TB- Threw 3 TDs this week and looked pretty good last week. I think he may possess more value than someone like David Garrard at this point. If he can keep up this kind of consistency, he’s going to be someone that is always out there on waivers putting up 15 points a week.

Cadillac Willliams TB- He looks explosive and has scores in both games this year. Get him now if you’re not too late.

Steve Smith NYG- While I think we just witnessed the peak of his upside, he is criminally under owned in PPR leagues. Whether he scores or not, he seems to be good for 6-8 catches and 65-90 yards. A touchdown is just a bonus.

Trent Edwards Buf- My main man T Ed has put up two good games in a row and could be a nice bye week filler for you. You may want to grab him now before someone else does.

Mike Sims-Walker: In my game previews this week I boasted, “don’t look for too much else from any other Jags with the possible exception of Mike Walker”. I’ve liked Mike Sims-Walker since he was just Mike Walker, presumably before his parents got divorced. Walker was close last week and busted out in a big way against the Cards. He totaled 6-106-1 on 9 targets and is quickly becoming Garrard’s favorite target. He may be someone to stash on the bench and see if he can work on the consistency for a few weeks.
The Worst Play of the Week

He may also win worst name of the week but Legedu Naanee made what could possibly be the most unheralded bad play of the year. As the Chargers were driving to win the game, Naanee caught the ball about 2 yards away from the first down marker, on about the 15 yards line. He had two options: get the first down by continuing on the slant he was running or cut back and get out of bounds to get the first down and stop the clock. Naanee decided that the best option was to juke and shake, all while standing still mind you, looking for a way to get to the end zone. He got hit from behind about a second later, failing to get the first down which left the Chargers 3rd and 2 with the clock still running. He took a run out of the playbook because Rivers needed to pass to make sure the clock stopped if there was no touchdown on the play. So they pass incomplete and now they’re 4th and 2. Next play, Ray Lewis blows up the line and kills Sproles in the backfield, ending the game. All Naanee had to do was fall forward and get that first down. Rivers could have then spiked the ball and set up something that could work. If anyone has the new Madden let me know if Naanee’s awareness rating is zero. I doubt we’ll be seeing much more of this Naanee and his stupid name in the future.