If there’s one thing to be said for the running back pool of 2009 is that it’s deeper than an abyss. There’s massive value to be had from top to bottom this year. So when drafting keep in mind that there is really no true ranking system that is going to be even remotely accurate but when you start to classify each player in groups of tiers, drafting becomes much more simple.
So let’s get started:
Scoring of a point for every 10 yards and 6 for a touchdown.
The Top Tier
1. Peterson
2. Forte
3. Turner
4. D. Williams
5. Jones-Drew
These five are pretty sure bets to come close to the value of where you draft them and really that’s all you want from a first round pick. Avoid a bust in the first and you’re bound to have a good year. Peterson is the best back in football, hands down, so he gives anyone the best chance to rack up the points. Look for Forte to get the sophomore boost and have an even bigger year with Cutler and no one to take carries away. Despite some concern over Turner’s massive carry load last year you have to keep in mind that it was his fist full season being “the guy” so his legs should remain very fresh. Last year’s highest point getter comes on the form for Deangelo Williams. The curious thing about Williams this year is that no seems to know if he can replicate any sort of semblance of that season again. He has bust potential to the max but if he can hold over 75% of his stats from last year he will be worthy of the investment. He should be able to do this with standout backup Jonathan “the Daily Show” Stewart consistently on the mend. That brings us to MJD, the man with potentially the biggest upside of anyone in the draft. He was a stud RB while splitting carries and now he has the backfield all to himself. This should propel him into the top spot you say? Maybe not. I agree is value will increase but don’t look for a massive increase in his touchdowns. A lot of his value came I fact that Fred Taylor would grind an defence down and a fresh MJD would come in and finish the job; this year it is all up to MJD to grind down the defence and that may actually lead to him ceding touchdowns to either Greg Jones or Rashad Jennings.
The Muddled second tier
6.Tomlinson
7.C.Johnson
8. Slaton
9. S. Jackson
10. Jacobs
11. Gore
12. Barber
13. Westbrook
Here is where it becomes difficult to assess value as much of it depends on the health of the players involved . LT, Jackson, and Westbrook are all top five picks as of a year ago and all have the potential to get back there. Jacobs is a touchdown machine but has always had a track record of being hurt. Barber is coming off an injury plagued season which saw the emergence of Felix Jones and Tashard Choice to whom he will lose some touches to. Rookie standouts Johnson and Slaton both come with some question marks. Johnson will lose all his red zone carries to “not long Big Fat” LenDale White so his value once again relies on his breakout speed and big play potential. Word out of training camp is that Slaton will lose some goal line carries to the world’s most vertical runner Chris Brown. He’s been beating down goalline defences all preseason like they were Rihanna. Which brings us to Gore. Constantly full of potential but can never seem to realize it. Touchdowns will be scarce as always playing for the low scoring 49ers but the touches will be there, which is something you can never over look.
Tier 3- the up and comers
14. K. Smith
15. P. Thomas
16. Portis
17. Grant
18. Addai
19. T. Jones
20. Parker
21. R. Brown
22. M. Lynch
23. McFadden
All these guys have upside higher than where they’re ranked but if history has shown us anything half of them will fizzle out as well. Kevin Smith looks to take a huge step forward being “the guy” on a if not good, improved Lions team. Thomas plays for the best offence in the league so he has the potential for a very large season. Grant should rebound from a down year last year. Portis will give you what he always does, a large first half which sees him break down In the second half. Addai, Jones, Parker, and Brown all have bust potential but have the opportunity to all be very good in the situations they are in. Lynch is only so low because he is missing the first three games but could be great value if you can fill in for him over that time. McFadden is the most interesting of the bunch. He has massive talent and is on a team that is surely going to run, a lot. If he can stay healthy and establish himself as the Raiders’ main option he could easily be a top 10 back.
Tier four
24. Rice
25. Stewart
26. Hightower
27. L. White
28. D. Ward
29. J. Lewis
30. D. Brown
31. Bush
32. L. Johnson
33. Benson
Rice, Stewart and Hightower are all entering their second years and have the opportunity to break out. White and Ward are both in platoon situations but each could see themselves on the touchdown end of that platoon. Lewis, Benson, and Johnson are all no good but will receive the majority of their team’s touches so by sheer volume that have value. Bush is always interesting but his values comes from receiving and returning and has limited upside in a non-PPR league. Donald Brown is a huge sleeper if he can get reps in the Colts offence where there is always the possibility to score.
Tier five- The rest
34. B. Wells
35. Moreno
36. Bradshaw
37. F. Jones
38. McCoy
39. F. Jackson
40. C. Taylor
41. Sproles
42. Mendenhall
43. Washington
44. J. Jones
45. Maroney
46. J. Davis
47. F. Taylor
48. G. Coffee
49. P. Hillis
50. W. McGahee
All these guys are either handcuffs or rookies except for Patriots and Julius Jones who is pretty God awful. Each of these guys could have an excellent season and are very worthy of a late round flyer but limit your expectations unless the guy in front of them goes down. You generally don’t want any part of a patriots running back based on you never know who is going to touch the ball from week to week. This year is going to be no different with the Patriots rostering five running backs: Fred Taylor, Lawrence Maroney, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk.
No comments:
Post a Comment