Trade Talk

Fantasy owners always panic with bad stats when that player is on their own team; they've been scorned by them before and develop a hatred for him. People are more likely to take a risk on a player they perceive to be good because they're unfamiliar with them and willing to give them a chance. Without that familiarity, most owners are willing to take a chance that someone can turn it around just because that player has has produced before. They're more willing to do this than ride it out of the underachiever that's currently on their team. Name value is so important in trades, specifically when that player becomes worse than his image is. It enables you trade some players who are highly over valued for a much better return. Coincidentally, owners seem more willing to give up on big name players if they get off to a bad start; they get panicky and label a player a bust prematurely. in this situation you can swoop in and pick up some elite talent on the cheap.

Buying and selling are two of the hardest things to do in all fantasy sports. Determining future value on a player is essentially a roll of the dice, there’s just so many variables: someone could get hurt, someone’s schedule may become easier due to defensive injuries, or someone could just lose their starting gig. The concepts of “selling high” and “buying low” are worthy strategies but you need to keep all factors in mind. From here on out I’m going to take a look at players who you should trade and trade for.

Four Big Names:

Some people to throw a low ball offer on:

Matt Forte: It can never hurt to see how little an owner is willing to part with Forte for. If you can get him 80 cents on the dollar, do it. Defenses are going to have to take a man out of the box soon to deal with the Bears burgeoning passing attack which will leave room for Forte to run.

Steve Slaton: Slaton is going to break loose soon and you’ll want to grab him before he does. The Texans passing attack is so good that defensives will eventually lose track of Slaton, putting him somewhere around where he was last year.

Ladainian Tomlinson: When Tomlinson returns from the Chargers bye week, week 5, he should be at full strength. If there are owners out there who are willing to sell LT for 50 cents on the dollar, seek them out. He may be a bust but I think you can find some people who are motivated to sell and he's definitely worth the upside. He probably won’t be a top 5 back but top 10 from week 6 on isn’t out of the question. Look at how dreadful the Chargers’ red zone offence has been with out him. he's going to be fed the ball when they get in inside the 20.

If you can get huge value for him, do it:

Larry Fitzgerald: I love Fitz, don't get me wrong, I think he’s one of the best players, at any position, in all of football. The problems rest with Anquan Boldin: he prevents Fitzgerald from being a truly elite receiver. Fitz’s best games last year came in the four weeks that Boldin was out: Weeks 5,6,16,and 17, when Boldin was out, Fitzgerald grabbed 6TDs. In the other 12 games he another 6. He's still an elite receiver but not in the top tier like the consensus though was before the season. It doesn’t look like Boldin’s hamstring is an issue anymore and that drops Fitzgerald from a top 3 receiver to a top 10 receiver. If you can swap him straight up for Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson you should look into it. A more ideal scenario would be to trade Fitz for an elite running back and a mid level receiver, something like Slaton and DeSean Jackson for Flitzgerald.

Five I’m Buying

Cedric Benson: As previously discussed on this blog, Cedric Benson is a top 10 fantasy back who gets little to no recognition. All people can remember about Benson is the bust label that has lingered with him since his Chicago days. Something crazy happened at the end of last year though; Benson seemed to get it together and he has kept it going into this season. So far he’s produced a quality 330 total yards and 2TDs through three games. He’s a guy you are going to want for the stretch run and playoffs. From weeks 11-16 he gets Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, San Diego, and Kansas City.

Steve Smith: Smith has emerged as Eli Manning’s favorite target accumulating 29 targets through three games this season. In the fantasy playoffs, weeks 15 & 16, he draws the Redskins and Panthers; two teams that probably will have little to play for come the end of the season. He has significantly more value in PPR leagues but he deserves a spot on all rosters with his consistent performance.

Steven Jackson: SJax was selected in the late first or early second round of most leagues and his stats to date have not kept up the draft slot in which he was taken. He has improved every week and there’s no way that Rams will be this terrible late in the season. Even now he hasn’t been unproductive, it just seems like it. Through three weeks Jackson has averaged 96 yards per game and no touchdowns; the TDs will eventually come. In weeks 15 and 16 he draws the Texans and Cardinals which sets up nicely for a huge playoff payday.

Nate Burleson: Burleson has been the recipient of a lot of targets so far this season, he’s currently 3rd in the NFL with 33. You should pounce on Burleson quickly before Matt Hasselbeck returns because his value will go up exponentially after that. The Seahawks have a terrible defense and it doesn’t seem like there will a lot of games where they won’t be forced to throw. TJ Houshmendzadeh is the bigger name so that pushes down Burleson’s value even more, you should be able to snake Burleson away from an owner who concerned about owning a second option on a mediocre team. Another bonus is his late season schedule, through weeks 14-16 he gets the defensively challenged Texans, Bucs, and Packers.

Brent Celek: Celek has been on a tear since the season started. He’s the number two ranked tight end and is only owned in 30% of leagues. If he’s owned in your league this is a prime week to trade for him, while he’s on bye. He has 27 targets through three weeks and has excelled with both McNabb and Kolb at the helm. Get him cheap now before it’s too late.

Five I’m Selling

Larry Johnson: While it’s debatable if you can get any real value for him, I’m sure there’s someone in your league who knows the name and name value has a lot of sway in fantasy football. Shop him around and see what you can get, if not just drop him, if you haven’t already.

Clinton Portis: I am Clin-ton is another “name” guy who just isn’t performing. He looks like he’s done; he just doesn’t hit the holes like he used to. In a gravy match up against the Lions in week 3, Portis ran for 48 yards on 12 attempts. This was against the Lions, it’s not going to get any easier than that. The best way to approach the Portis conundrum is hope he has a respectable week against the Bucs. If he does, immediately shop him around to a gullible owner. You could probably fetch people in the Lucky Pierre or DeSean Jackson range but aim higher to start, see if you can get an elite player like Vincent Jackson or even inquire to a desperate LT owner. If you want to be creative, try something like Portis for Benson and a depth filling receiver like Devin Hester.

Fred Jackson: Has been a top 5 performer for the first three weeks but his value will probably be cut by at least 40%, maybe more, with the return of Marshawn Lynch. If you can grab a mid level running like a Kevin Smith or Ronnie Brown, you’ll win this deal by a landslide. Probably a better bet would be to package him with a mid level talent like Jericho Cotchery or Donald Brown to grab an elite player.

Jamal Lewis: Lewis is almost as awful as Browns. He's getting old and has no help from the horrendous quarterback play from Anderson and Quinn. Like Larry Johnson, you should be able to get some return based on his name alone. If you can’t I would say drop him but shop him around first to try and get some value for him.

Julius Jones: Jones ranks 7th among RBs so far this season despite the fact that he is definitely one of the worst backs in football. If you dupe someone into just looking at his point total for the year you may be able to pawn him off for a top 15 back. Jones will continue to have value based solely on the fact that he’s the starter in Seattle but he won’t finish the year higher than 25th among running backs.